DOWNSIDE INTELLIGENCE / CASE STUDY 001

WE SHOW YOU THEBADYEAR.FIRST

Before the upside deck. Before the perfect rendering. We test the moment when the market stops cooperating.

Stress the building ↗Read the risk register →

25Floors reviewed

+300bps rate shock

20%Vacancy scenario

0.91×Illustrative DSCR

FLOORS 22–25
Vacancy scenario

FLOORS 16–21
Lease expiry cluster

FLOORS 02–08
Retail & office mix

REVIEW THE BUILDING.
TEST THE ASSUMPTIONS.
FIND THE DOWNSIDE.

DRAWING 01 / ILLUSTRATIVE STUDY

CASE 02 / RATE SHOCK

0.91×

DSCR

At +300bps / 20% vacancy

BASE DSCR1.93×

RATE SHOCK+300 bps

VACANCY20%

NEW DSCR0.91×

A bad year.
Before it
becomes yours.

AN ATTRACTIVE BUILDING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT THESISTEST THE YEAR NOBODY WANTS TO MODEL

01 / STRESS TESTING

MAKETHE BADYEARHAPPEN.

Pull the rate lever. Vacate the floors. Watch the financing become the story. No polished average can hide the stress case.

Vacancy scenario20%

Rate shock at refinance+300

AUTO PREVIEW · RATE SHOCK · USE ANY CONTROL TO TAKE OVER

FLOOR 25 / TOPVacancy exposureExplore a floor to inspect its status.

Vacant2027–2030Retail / otherLease base

SYNTHETIC 25-FLOOR ELEVATION / NOT AN ACTUAL ASSET

FINANCIAL IMPACT / RATE SHOCK

Net operating income$14.72M

Scenario debt service$16.15M

DSCR0.91×

Leverage · at acquisition58%

Exit cap rate7.50%

Illustrative value$196.3M

Fictional scenario. Variables use a simplified illustrative model and assumptions—not an actual investment, underwriting opinion or predicted return.

Stress scenarios reveal risk.
That's the point.

02 / THE RISK REGISTER

THEFINEPRINTIS THE POINT.

The most important pages in a deal rarely make the brochure. We put them at the front.

OPEN AN ITEM TO INSPECT OUR REVIEW QUESTIONS →

INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MEMORANDUM
RISK ANALYSIS / 125 MARKET STREETCONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT 2.1

Anchor tenant concentration

Largest tenant accounts for 34% of NOI. Lease expires in 2027; renewal is not assumed.

ASK: What happens to cash flow if the tenant leaves? Where is the tenant-improvement reserve?

Rate-cap expiry

Interest-rate cap expires in 18 months. Model includes a +300 bps shock and stressed refinancing.

ASK: What does refinancing cost after the cap expires? What debt-covenant headroom remains?

Exit value

We examine wider exit cap rates (7.0%–8.0%) to reflect slower leasing and a different sale market.

ASK: What happens to the capital stack if exit valuations compress?

Lease-up and reserves

Downtime, brokerage and tenant improvements are included as cash requirements—not footnotes.

ASK: Which assumptions are supported by current signed leases?

Show the bad news first.

03 / CAPITAL STRUCTURE

WHOGETSPAID?Even in a bad year.

DISTRIBUTION WATERFALL / ILLUSTRATIVESCENARIO 02

100%

66%

42%

NET CASH FLOWDEBT SERVICELP PREFGP CATCH UPLP / GP SPLIT

Bars are a simplified distribution illustration, not a return projection. Loss of coverage can restrict distributable cash.

TYPICAL FEE STRUCTURE / EXAMPLE

Management fee1.0%

Acquisition fee1.0%

Asset management0.5%

Disposition fee1.0%

Incentive promote20%

Hypothetical fee schedule, not an actual offer; review the applicable governing documents before investing.

04 / INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Q&A

THEHARDQUESTIONS.

CLICK A QUESTION FOR THE DOCUMENT WE WOULD REQUEST

THE DECISION IS YOURS

THEBUILDINGIS THEEVIDENCE.

Don’t invest in a projection. Investigate a building.

Explore the sample data room ↗

FICTIONAL DESIGN DEMONSTRATION • NO INVESTMENT OFFERED